United States Natural Gas Fund, LP — Form 8-K
Filed October 15, 2026 · analyzed by the 8-K Agent
8-K
▼ Likely negative
significance 72/100
What the filing says
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP amended its ISDA Master Agreement with Société Générale effective October 13, 2026. The amendment modifies the Total Net Assets (TNA) Decline Event trigger from an unspecified prior level to US$200M for UNG specifically (versus US$1.5B for other counterparties). This contractual change defines the threshold at which derivative positions may be subject to forced termination or collateral calls.
Why this rating
UNG's market cap is ~$360.5M; $200M TNA threshold is 55% of current value. Materially tightens financial covenants on swap counterparty relationships, increasing refinancing/covenant-breach risk if fund shrinks further.
Tradability signal
SHORT
conviction 37/100 · expected -0.46% over 4 hrs
SHORT (drift): bad news keeps sliding after dissemination — our one persistent measured edge. Similar past filings (50 in this cell) moved +0.69% in the called direction over 4 hrs; shrunk for sample size that's a +0.46% edge. Price is down 4.7% since the filing hit EDGAR — the slide has begun. Exit plan: HARD stop 2.5% against entry — 1.4× this stock's measured hourly volatility, fixed, not trailing (trails test terribly on these names) — time exit 4 hrs. (Filing arrived outside market hours — evaluated at the next open with a live quote.)
Derived from this site's own measured outcomes + live price/liquidity at analysis time. An experiment, not investment advice.
Price action (we called it negative)
before filing · preread $11.09 ▲ 4.82% | at our read · unknown $10.58 | +10 min · unknown $10.56 ▼ 0.19% | +30 min · unknown $10.56 ▼ 0.14% | +1 hr · unknown $10.60 ▲ 0.14% | +4 hrs · unknown $10.74 ▲ 1.52% |
The stock had already moved -4.60% between hitting EDGAR and our read finishing — deltas above are measured from our read.
Quotes via Yahoo Finance at capture time; for filings arriving outside market hours the clock starts at the next open. Not investment advice. How accurate are our calls? →
See more from October 15, 2026.
EDGAR·FLOW summarizes public SEC EDGAR filings with automated analysis. Materiality scores and stock-impact predictions are algorithmically generated and are not investment advice. Always verify against the source filing on SEC.gov.