EDGAR·FLOW

Do our calls move with the market?

Every filing we score 70+ gets its stock price captured at our read and again at 10 min, 30 min, 1 hr, and 4 hrs. Returns are signed by our call (flipped for negative calls), so positive = the market agreed with us. Expectancy is the average signed return per filing — a low win rate with big winners still shows up here, which is what makes it the number to watch.

Tracked filings with a directional call: 896

Horizon	n	Expectancy	Win rate	Avg win	Avg loss	Profit factor
+10 min best	847	+0.32%	32%	+4.51%	-1.68%	1.28
+30 min	839	-0.13%	38%	+4.75%	-3.06%	0.93
+1 hr	836	-0.22%	39%	+5.15%	-3.72%	0.90
+4 hrs	800	+0.21%	45%	+7.94%	-6.05%	1.06

Current read

Best expectancy so far: +10 min. The segment tables below show which kinds of calls drive it. Sample sizes are still small — a running experiment, not a strategy.

Tradability signal — the verifiable track record

The trade signal sees what the price already did (pre-read move, liquidity, volatility) and only fires when our own outcome data supports the trade. 157 actionable signals issued, 829 filings passed on. Returns signed by the SIGNAL's direction. Every live signal is logged to this site's append-only hash-chained audit log the moment it's issued — verify the chain — proving each call predates its outcome.

Forward (issued live, before outcomes existed)

Horizon	n	Gross	Net of costs	Win rate	PF
+30 min	107	+0.55%	-1.01%	51%	1.35
+1 hr	107	+1.13%	-0.43%	54%	1.70
+4 hrs	106	+0.36%	-1.20%	55%	1.13

Backfilled (retroactive, in-sample — expect inflation)

Horizon	n	Gross	Net of costs	Win rate	PF
+30 min	13	+2.65%	+0.82%	54%	6.15
+1 hr	15	+1.69%	-0.15%	60%	8.90
+4 hrs	8	+4.22%	+1.83%	75%	3.21

Cost model for the net column (stated so it's auditable): round-trip spread+slippage by entry price — 3% under $1, 1.5% $1–5, 0.5% $5–50, 0.15% above $50 — plus 0.3% borrow premium for shorts under $5. Judge this strategy ONLY by the forward table once n reaches ~30+.

Compounding paper book

A virtual account that trades every signal chronologically: stake = 20% of current equity capped at $5k (microcap capacity is real), vol-scaled hard stop (checked against the 10/30/60-min captures — coarse by design and stated), 4-hr time exit, cost model applied to every trade. This is what compounding actually does to the strategy — including the drawdowns.

Forward book (live signals only — the one that counts)

Every trade in this book was called before its outcome existed, verifiable against the audit chain.

$10,000 → $9,593 -4.07% · 106 trades · max drawdown 18.09%

When	Ticker	Side	Stake	P&L	Exit	Equity
Oct 16	MMEDV	short	$1,914	+$22 (+1.16%)	time	$9,593
Oct 16	RYM	short	$1,904	+$53 (+2.76%)	time	$9,571
Oct 16	UNG	short	$1,911	$39 (-2.02%)	time	$9,518
Oct 16	MSB	short	$1,923	$60 (-3.11%)	time	$9,557
Oct 15	CCC	short	$1,925	$10 (-0.5%)	time	$9,616
Oct 15	FMC	short	$1,941	$77 (-3.94%)	time	$9,626
Oct 15	CODX	short	$1,917	+$117 (+6.13%)	time	$9,703
Oct 15	INR	short	$1,913	+$22 (+1.16%)	time	$9,585

Backfilled book (in-sample illustration)

Retroactive signals — inflated by construction; shown for shape, not proof.

$10,000 → $10,475 +4.75% · 8 trades · max drawdown 2.21%

When	Ticker	Side	Stake	P&L	Exit	Equity
Sep 1	SNAL	short	$2,077	+$88 (+4.23%)	time	$10,475
Sep 1	XTIA	short	$2,076	+$9 (+0.42%)	time	$10,387
Aug 31	TELA	short	$2,111	$175 (-8.3%)	stop	$10,378
Aug 28	BCAB	short	$2,122	$59 (-2.78%)	time	$10,553
Aug 28	KALA	short	$2,101	+$107 (+5.1%)	time	$10,612
Aug 25	SDOT	short	$1,999	+$512 (+25.63%)	time	$10,505
Aug 25	BTAI	short	$1,995	+$18 (+0.91%)	time	$9,993
Aug 24	BTAI	short	$2,000	$26 (-1.28%)	time	$9,974

By call direction

Horizon	n	Expectancy	Win rate	Avg win	Avg loss	Profit factor
positive calls @ +30 min	551	-0.48%	34%	+4.27%	-2.96%	0.75
positive calls @ +4 hrs	535	-0.13%	41%	+7.60%	-5.48%	0.96
negative calls @ +30 min	288	+0.55%	44%	+5.47%	-3.28%	1.30
negative calls @ +4 hrs	265	+0.91%	52%	+8.48%	-7.45%	1.26

By share price (liquidity proxy)

Horizon	n	Expectancy	Win rate	Avg win	Avg loss	Profit factor
under $5 @ +30 min	487	+0.15%	39%	+6.21%	-3.70%	1.07
under $5 @ +4 hrs	466	+0.50%	44%	+10.77%	-7.64%	1.12
$5–$50 @ +30 min	253	-0.69%	34%	+2.56%	-2.39%	0.56
$5–$50 @ +4 hrs	244	-0.33%	43%	+4.59%	-4.05%	0.86
$50+ @ +30 min	99	-0.05%	39%	+2.58%	-1.77%	0.95
$50+ @ +4 hrs	90	+0.23%	52%	+3.06%	-2.86%	1.17

By significance score

Horizon	n	Expectancy	Win rate	Avg win	Avg loss	Profit factor
70–79 @ +30 min	667	-0.10%	37%	+4.25%	-2.65%	0.94
70–79 @ +4 hrs	641	+0.15%	44%	+7.14%	-5.35%	1.05
80–89 @ +30 min	51	-3.18%	37%	+2.22%	-6.39%	0.21
80–89 @ +4 hrs	46	-0.93%	46%	+10.28%	-10.35%	0.83
90+ @ +30 min	121	+1.00%	40%	+8.29%	-3.96%	1.43
90+ @ +4 hrs	113	+1.07%	49%	+11.19%	-8.53%	1.24

Methodology: horizon-0 quote at the moment our agent finished reading the filing; later quotes from the live engine's capture loop, with an S&P 500 (SPY) quote stored alongside for market-adjusted analysis. Each filing page also records the price just before the filing hit EDGAR, measuring how much of the move happened before our read. After-hours sessions are labeled. Not investment advice.

EDGAR·FLOW summarizes public SEC EDGAR filings with automated analysis. Materiality scores and stock-impact predictions are algorithmically generated and are not investment advice. Always verify against the source filing on SEC.gov.