Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. — Form 8-K
Filed October 27, 2026 · analyzed by the 8-K Agent
8-K
▼ Likely negative
significance 78/100
What the filing says
On September 14, 2026, Baldwin Insurance Group agreed to an all-cash take-private transaction with investor group led by Sequence Holdings and DFO Management at $32.50 per share. Q3 2026 showed total revenue of $480.3M (+31% YoY), net loss of $81.6M, adjusted EBITDA of $106.9M (+47% YoY), and adjusted free cash flow of $55.6M (+33% YoY). Organic revenue growth was 6% YoY; transaction expected to close Q1 2027 subject to regulatory approvals.
Why this rating
Go-private deal at $32.50/share is material capital event for $3.6B company; removes public equity optionality. Solid Q3 operational metrics offset by take-private and $81.6M GAAP loss.
Tradability signal
SHORT
conviction 37/100 · expected -0.48% over 4 hrs
SHORT (drift): bad news keeps sliding after dissemination — our one persistent measured edge. Similar past filings (57 in this cell) moved +0.69% in the called direction over 4 hrs; shrunk for sample size that's a +0.48% edge. Price is down 0.3% since the filing hit EDGAR — the slide has begun. Exit plan: HARD stop 2.5% against entry — 1.4× this stock's measured hourly volatility, fixed, not trailing (trails test terribly on these names) — time exit 4 hrs. (Filing arrived outside market hours — evaluated at the next open with a live quote.)
Derived from this site's own measured outcomes + live price/liquidity at analysis time. An experiment, not investment advice.
Price action (we called it negative)
at our read · unknown $31.90 | +10 min · unknown $31.91 ▲ 0.02% | +30 min · unknown $31.92 ▲ 0.06% | +1 hr pending | +4 hrs pending |
Quotes via Yahoo Finance at capture time; for filings arriving outside market hours the clock starts at the next open. Not investment advice. How accurate are our calls? →
See more from October 27, 2026.
EDGAR·FLOW summarizes public SEC EDGAR filings with automated analysis. Materiality scores and stock-impact predictions are algorithmically generated and are not investment advice. Always verify against the source filing on SEC.gov.