United States Natural Gas Fund, LP — Form 8-K
Filed October 30, 2026 · analyzed by the 8-K Agent
8-K
▼ Likely negative
significance 72/100
What the filing says
United States Natural Gas Fund's net asset value dropped from $571.0M (Sept 1) to $469.9M (Sept 30, 2026)—an 18% monthly decline. The fund experienced net redemptions of $100.6M (14.5M shares withdrawn vs. 5.5M added). Operating expenses totaled $543.9K; realized trading gains of $25.1M were offset by $25.2M in unrealized losses on futures, resulting in net monthly loss of $518.7K.
Why this rating
18% NAV contraction in one month represents major shareholder loss and potential outflow crisis. Relative to $360M market cap, $100M net redemption is 28% of fund size—severe. Indicates market stress or loss of investor confidence in natural gas positioning.
Tradability signal
SHORT
conviction 29/100 · expected -0.49% over 4 hrs
SHORT (drift): bad news keeps sliding after dissemination — our one persistent measured edge. Similar past filings (68 in this cell) moved +0.67% in the called direction over 4 hrs; shrunk for sample size that's a +0.49% edge. Price is up 0.1% since the filing hit EDGAR — market hasn't digested it yet. Exit plan: HARD stop 2.5% against entry — 1.4× this stock's measured hourly volatility, fixed, not trailing (trails test terribly on these names) — time exit 4 hrs.
Derived from this site's own measured outcomes + live price/liquidity at analysis time. An experiment, not investment advice.
Price action (we called it negative)
before filing · preread $9.04 ▼ 0.10% | at our read · unknown $9.05 | +10 min · unknown $9.07 ▲ 0.19% | +30 min · unknown $9.08 ▲ 0.33% | +1 hr · unknown $9.09 ▲ 0.39% | +4 hrs pending |
The stock had already moved +0.10% between hitting EDGAR and our read finishing — deltas above are measured from our read.
Quotes via Yahoo Finance at capture time; for filings arriving outside market hours the clock starts at the next open. Not investment advice. How accurate are our calls? →
See more from October 30, 2026.
EDGAR·FLOW summarizes public SEC EDGAR filings with automated analysis. Materiality scores and stock-impact predictions are algorithmically generated and are not investment advice. Always verify against the source filing on SEC.gov.