MESABI TRUST — Form 8-K
Filed October 15, 2026 · analyzed by the 8-K Agent
8-K
▼ Likely negative
significance 72/100
What the filing says
Mesabi Trust's Trustees declared no distribution for Q4 2026 (payable November), versus $0.34/unit year-ago. July 2026 royalty payments from Cleveland-Cliffs/Northshore Mining totaled $1,807,779, down 66% from $5,300,287 in July 2025; no bonus royalties were earned in either Q1 or Q2 2026 because iron ore prices fell below the $71.70/ton threshold. The Trust is also building reserves for pending arbitration and managing uncertainty around Cliffs' supply-chain restructuring.
Why this rating
Royalty collapse (66% YoY) and zero distribution cut materially reduce shareholder income; relative to $230.5M market cap, sustained flow-through risk is substantial. Operator dependency and price-threshold mechanics add structural vulnerability.
Tradability signal
SHORT
conviction 29/100 · expected -0.46% over 4 hrs
SHORT (drift): bad news keeps sliding after dissemination — our one persistent measured edge. Similar past filings (50 in this cell) moved +0.69% in the called direction over 4 hrs; shrunk for sample size that's a +0.46% edge. Price is up 0.0% since the filing hit EDGAR — market hasn't digested it yet. Exit plan: HARD stop 4.5% against entry — 1.4× this stock's measured hourly volatility, fixed, not trailing (trails test terribly on these names) — time exit 4 hrs. (Filing arrived outside market hours — evaluated at the next open with a live quote.)
Derived from this site's own measured outcomes + live price/liquidity at analysis time. An experiment, not investment advice.
Price action (we called it negative)
before filing · preread $18.04 ▲ 0.00% | at our read · unknown $18.04 | +10 min · unknown $17.99 ▼ 0.28% | +30 min · unknown $18.31 ▲ 1.50% | +1 hr · unknown $17.83 ▼ 1.14% | +4 hrs · unknown $18.51 ▲ 2.61% |
The stock had already moved +0.00% between hitting EDGAR and our read finishing — deltas above are measured from our read.
Quotes via Yahoo Finance at capture time; for filings arriving outside market hours the clock starts at the next open. Not investment advice. How accurate are our calls? →
See more from October 15, 2026.
EDGAR·FLOW summarizes public SEC EDGAR filings with automated analysis. Materiality scores and stock-impact predictions are algorithmically generated and are not investment advice. Always verify against the source filing on SEC.gov.